Skip to main content

I have 0 followers and follow the trends. Are you a trend?

I am following Seeking Alpha just to understand how people are investing and how they build an argument about investing. You have to understand not only the argument but also the position of the author: does she buy the stock, does she have skin in the game or is just a concerted effort to push stocks and create momentum. Keep in mind that transactions happening in seconds based on the arbitrage positions discovered by complex algorithms are the norm in hedge funds.

"Many, sadly, fit the description of the American adage (often attributed to Mark Twain) that a mine is a hole in the ground with a liar at the top."

I have the same impression about some of the websites pretending they know what are doing. I remember it dearly because although I canceled the notifications for certain web sites promoting their investing letters, it was impossible to stop the flow of offers. That's a sign of very compelling investment ideas...

Following the great investors (Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, George Soros, Jim Rogers, etc...) will reveal luck and preparation but mostly is about (un)crowded financial space. How many funds were in 70s or 80s compared with 2000-2005? What bubbles you heard of in 80s and 70s? Real-estate ? Oil ? Commodities?

Stepping back and looking at the bubbles, it's all about crowds. People rushing to put money in sectors, ideas, vaporware engineering. A lot of people. Have you heard of important deals closed by Soros or Rogers lately? The industry has changed and people stayed closed to their style which is not in sync with technologies, quantitative theories.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

When gaffes are used strategically

Photo by Kyle Head on Unsplash You probably heard that swimming in rough waters in life will reveal your own character and of all the people with you, caught in that moment. It is always unexpected and, exactly as in movies, it begins with a peaceful background and a monotone sound. Everything is unfolding slowly and without any clues that deep gaps will be revealed in any way. It is like a crack in someone's emotional fabric which becomes a wrecking ball for the characters caught in the event, for a short time span, sufficient to project them on a different life orbit, for good. Some people are calling those events "interventions", others fear them as "dark spots" where secrets are emerging as an iceberg unbalanced by some life event. The repercussions are deep and memorable and entail subsequent turmoils, like a burning lava which will flow down for many days to find a peaceful landscape to cool off. The characters are the same like in normal life ...

The Big Split

Photo by CDC on Unsplash   Detect immunity One of the numbers broadcasted every day is the number of COVID-19 patients who recovered. Instead of being fixed on detecting people with corona virus, we should be fixed on detecting the ones who had a mild version of corona virus or even were asymptomatic. Once we know they can freely move, socially mark them in a certain way (with a special certificate).  They could be the soldiers of opening closed businesses or helping important economic sectors. They are on the other side of the fear, all the COVID-19 restrictions should not apply to them. It is not known for how long is the immunity lasting, but at least, these people should come back and revive the industries and get the jobs and make the economy re-start. It is a small number, but they can propel some ideas for the ones in the isolation (see below). That should be the second most important decision of our governments - detect immunity, instead of just...

The sprint to stop an epidemic - Corona virus

Photo by Trust "Tru" Katsande on Unsplash I was reading about the developing efforts for a vaccine reflected through the stock market. It happened to have a few shares of the VIR Biotechnology ( VIR ) company when the chase of finding a vaccine started. It was an incredible ride, even for a guy accustomed with the up-and-downs of the shares in a company and the political game played when companies are bought or acquired. Just for illustration, please see the chart of this stock for a three month period. There is excitement, at the beginning  of March about the possibility of developing a vaccine for Corona virus, and the stock surpasses 70$/share when before is was lingering under the 17$/share threshold. There are many companies in the race - Moderna ( MRNA ), Gilead ( GILD ), Inovio Pharmaceuticals ( INO ) and probably a few of them will find a virus. What I don't understand is the effort spent in parallel of fighting the same cause. It is a lot of ...